Tourism, Organisations & Operators,

Latest figures released by UKinbound, the trade association for over 300 UK inbound tourism businesses, indicate a strong recovery for UK tourism arrivals in 2022, although still significantly below pre-pandemic levels.
In a March survey of its members, undertaken by Qa Research, over one in three (39%) of respondents stated that international bookings and visitors for April/May/June 2022 were expected to be the same or higher than pre-pandemic, however the majority (61%) are expecting international bookings/visitors to be down, by an average of 47%.
Inbound tourism businesses revenue predictions for this period were similar, with almost half (45%) expecting them to be the same or higher than pre-pandemic, and 55% expecting them to be lower by an average of 49%. The US market is recovering the strongest, with one in three businesses seeing growth in this market.
Parallels also emerged when businesses were asked to consider international bookings and visitors between July and December 2022, compared with pre-pandemic. 50% are expecting figures to be the same or higher, and 50% are expecting international bookings and visitor numbers to be lower by an average of 41%.
Business confidence continues to rise, with 63% of companies confident about the impending 12 months, up from 56% in January 2022. April 2020 saw confidence levels at an all time low, 11%, but they have steadily risen every quarter since then. ADVERTISEMENTCommenting on the results, Joss Croft, CEO, UKinbound said “It’s fantastic to see international travellers returning to the UK and we’re delighted to see the strongest growth from our number one market, the USA. The ending of all UK travel restrictions has given international consumers the confidence to begin travelling here again. Compared with 2020 and 2021 business is booming but we’re significantly lagging behind 2019 prosperity and our competitors.
“Inbound tourism is the country’s second largest service export industry, second only to financial services. It can accelerate the UK’s economic recovery but it’s a competitive industry and more needs to be done to entice international visitors back to the UK. We need a more competitive visa system, to rectify the devastating impact the removal of ID Card usage has had on the UK’s inbound youth traveller sector, and resolve the substantial negative impact the removal of tax-free shopping is having.
“Our welcome is also critically important, whether that be processing at our borders, or the service received at our hotels, cultural attractions and restaurants. Continued Government investment in the promotion of Britain abroad and the implementation of policies and funding that support the recovery and growth of businesses across the sector continues to be vital.”

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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that air travel posted a strong rebound in February 2022 compared to January 2022, as Omicron-related impacts moderated outside of Asia. The war in Ukraine, which began on 24 February, did not have a major impact on traffic levels.
Note: We are returning to year-on-year traffic comparisons, instead of comparisons with the 2019 period, unless otherwise noted. Owing to the low traffic base in 2021, some markets will show very high year-on-year growth rates, even if the size of these markets is still significantly smaller than they were in 2019.
Total traffic in February 2022 (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) was up 115.9% compared to February 2021. That is an improvement from January 2022, which was up 83.1% compared to January 2021. Compared to February 2019, however, traffic was down 45.5%.
February 2022 domestic traffic was up 60.7% compared to the year-ago period, building on a 42.6% increase in January 2022 compared to January 2021. There was wide variation in markets tracked by IATA. Domestic traffic in February was 21.8% below the volumes of February 2019.
International RPKs rose 256.8% versus February 2021, improved from a 165.5% year-over-year increase in January 2022 versus the year-earlier period. All regions improved their performance compared to the prior month. February 2022 international RPKs were down 59.6% compared to the same month in 2019.
“The recovery in air travel is gathering steam as governments in many parts of the world lift travel restrictions. States that persist in attempting to lock-out the disease, rather than managing it, as we do with other diseases, risk missing out on the enormous economic and societal benefits that a restoration of international connectivity will bring,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
International Passenger Markets
European carriers saw their February traffic rise 380.6% versus February 2021, improved over the 224.3% increase in January 2022 versus the same month in 2021. Capacity rose 174.8%, and load factor climbed 30.3 percentage points to 70.9%.ADVERTISEMENTAsia-Pacific airlines had a 144.4% rise in February traffic compared to February 2021, up somewhat over the 125.8% gain registered in January 2022 versus January 2021. Capacity rose 60.8% and the load factor was up 16.1 percentage points to 47.0%, the lowest among regions.
Middle Eastern airlines’ traffic rose 215.3% in February compared to February 2021, well up compared to the 145.0% increase in January 2022, versus the same month in 2021. February capacity rose 89.5% versus the year-ago period, and load factor climbed 25.8 percentage points to 64.7%.
North American carriers experienced a 236.7% traffic rise in February versus the 2021 period, significantly increased compared to the 149.0% rise in January 2022 over January 2021. Capacity rose 91.7%, and load factor climbed 27.4 percentage points to 63.6%.
Latin American airlines’ February traffic rose 242.7% compared to the same month in 2021, well up over the 155.2% rise in January 2022 compared to January 2021. February capacity rose 146.3% and load factor increased 21.7 percentage points to 77.0%, which was the highest load factor among the regions for the 17th consecutive month.
African airlines had a 69.5% rise in February RPKs versus a year ago, a large improvement compared to the 20.5% year-over-year increase recorded in January 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. February 2022 capacity was up 34.7% and load factor climbed 12.9 percentage points to 63.0%.
Brazil’s domestic traffic was up 32.5% in February, compared to February 2021, which was a slowdown compared to the 35.5% year-over-year growth recorded in January.
US domestic RPKs rose 112.5% year-on-year in February, an improvement compared to the 98.4% rise in January versus the prior year.
2022 vs 2019
The accelerated growth recorded in February 2022 compared to a year ago, is helping passenger demand catch-up to 2019 levels. Total RPKs in February were down 45.5% compared to February 2019, well ahead of the 49.6% decline recorded in January versus the same month in 2019. The domestic recovery continues to outpace that of international markets.
The Bottom Line
“As the long-awaited recovery in air travel accelerates, it is important that our infrastructure providers are prepared for a huge increase in passenger numbers in the coming months. We are already seeing reports of unacceptably long lines at some airports owing to the growing number of travelers. And that is even before the surge of Easter holiday travel in many markets next week. The peak Northern summer travel season will be critical for jobs throughout the travel and tourism value chain. Now is the time to prepare. Governments can help by ensuring that border positions are staffed adequately and that background security checks for new staff are managed as efficiently as possible,” said Walsh.

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Manchester Airports Group has significantly increased the number of active jobs available on its career pages, with open positions increasing from 65 in December to 110 in February, according to GlobalData. However, the leading data and analytics company notes that only 36 positions were closed in this period – an ominous sign of things to come with international trips set to dramatically increase in April.
The peak season for holidays in the UK is fast approaching. According to GlobalData, total domestic and outbound visits in August from the UK are projected to be more than double the total number of visits in April. If staff shortages are not addressed by the peak of the summer season in airports such as Manchester Airport and London Stansted Airport, the impact could be calamitous for the UK’s airport and airline sectors, and the wider tourism industry.
Ralph Hollister, Travel and Tourism Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Staff shortages could remain a problem for several months as airports scramble to match employment levels with demand. When travel came to a standstill during the pandemic, many airport employees left their positions to work in other industries. Stories of unruly passengers, often long commute times, and job uncertainty, as seen with COVID-19, could be off-putting for many currently seeking work.”
The coming months will be challenging for UK airports and airlines. A lack of staff in key positions could create an array of knock-on impacts, including missed flights, cancelations, and negative traveler sentiment, all of which could prolong recovery.
Hollister adds: “A lack of employees in key roles, such as those involving security, are key contributors to the long queues causing flights to be missed and passenger experiences to turn sour. It’s now up to airport companies to improve their recruitment strategies and make working in an airport an attractive proposition However, lengthy vetting procedures and training processes involved for these positions means the issue with long queues will not vanish overnight.”ADVERTISEMENT

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Saint Lucia and Spain are among the nations relaxing entry requirements. For Saint Lucia, fully vaccinated travellers no longer need to take pre-travel Covid tests, with unvaccinated travellers requiring a negative PCR test. Meanwhile Spain will allow unvaccinated arrivals entry with proof of negative PCR or antigen test.
Saint LuciaVaccinated travellers must provide a valid vaccination record as requested on check-in, boarding, and entry to Saint Lucia. Unvaccinated travellers five years and older must have a valid negative standard COVID-19 PCR test five days before arrival. An unsupervised self-swab antigen or PCR test is not accepted.
Passengers arriving without tests or with the wrong type of test will be retested on arrival at their own cost and will be required to remain in quarantine until the test result is known.
In addition, travellers are no longer required to pre-register online prior to arrival in Saint Lucia. All arrivals are required to bring proof of vaccination status or test results as per protocols. International travellers and returning nationals must complete a Health Screening Form before disembarkation in Saint Lucia for ease of processing on arrival.
For more information about Saint Lucia’s COVID-19 response, all protocols, and details of entry requirements, visit www.stlucia.org/covid-19.ADVERTISEMENTSpainSpain has updated its entry requirements and non-vaccinated UK passengers can now enter Spain with proof of a negative PCR or antigen, or proof of diagnostic recovery.
The new entry guidelines, effective from 6 April 2022 require all UK travellers ages 12 and above to submit one of the following three criteria:
1 Certificate of vaccination: Proof of being fully-vaccinated (with both doses of a two-dose vaccine or one dose of a one-dose vaccine) at least 14 days prior to arrival in Spain. If more than 270 days have passed since the final dose, certification of a booster vaccination is also required, except for teenagers aged 12 to 17 (inclusive).
2 Diagnostic Test Certificate: Proof that the passenger has carried out a negative diagnostic test including PCR tests (within 72h) or antigen tests (within 24h).
3 Certificate of recovery: Proof that the passenger has recovered from COVID. Recovery certificates issued by the official authorities will be valid at least 11 days after the first NAAT diagnostic test or positive antigen screening test, carried out by qualified personnel. The certificate shall be valid for 180 days after the date of the first positive diagnostic test result.
Children under 12 years old are exempt when travelling with an adult.

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Japan and Singapore continue to share number one spot on the Henley Passport Index — the ranking for the world’s passports according to the number of destinations their holders can access without a prior visa — with their passport holders able to access 192 destinations around the world visa-free, not taking temporary Covid restrictions into account.
Germany and South Korea hold joint-2nd place, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 190, while Finland, Italy, Luxembourg, and Spain share 3rd place, with their passport holders able to access 189 destinations around the world without having to acquire a visa in advance. The UK, which recently dropped all remaining Covid-related restrictions, now sits in 5th place, with a score of 187, with the US just one place behind in 6th spot, with a score of 186. Afghanistan remains at the bottom of the index­ — which is based on exclusive data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) — with its nationals only able to access 26 destinations visa-free.
Dr. Christian H. Kaelin, Chairman of Henley & Partners, says the latest update provides a unique snapshot of a volatile and rapidly changing world. “The country you are born in dramatically impacts the quality and extent of opportunities you will have in your life as well as the challenges you might face along the way. Holding more than one citizenship, with the range of personal access rights each guarantees, is the ultimate asset in a time of crisis and volatility.”
Commenting in the Henley Global Mobility Report 2022 Q2, released today along with the latest Henley Passport Index, Dr. Parag Khanna, bestselling author and Founder of FutureMap says creative solutions will be needed as mass migration becomes the norm. “When faced with war or climate disruptions our fight or flight instinct kicks in and the sensible response has been to move in search of more suitable conditions. We are becoming a migratory species again. In the coming decades climate disruptions threaten to make some regions of our planet uninhabitable, and millions, if not billions, of people will need to find new homes.”
According to exclusive research by Henley & Partners and Deep Knowledge Analytics into the correlation between passport power, and climate change vulnerability and preparedness, wealthy and developed nations with the greatest visa-free access also score highly when it comes to their readiness to adapt to the climate crisis. Charles Phillips of the Oxford Business Group says, “We can see close correlations between climate adaptation performance and international travel freedom. It brings into stark reality the fact that your citizenship and passport really do matter when it comes to mitigating climate risk”.ADVERTISEMENTSebastian Mikosz, Vice President of Environment and Sustainability at IATA, says forecasts indicate demand for 10 billion passenger journeys by 2050 (up from around 4 billion pre-pandemic). “Much of this growth will come from passengers who have never had the opportunity to fly before: in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We owe it to this next generation of flyers to find sustainable solutions, so they can enjoy and benefit from air travel as we have done so far.”

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Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Choose Chicago have announced that Lynn Osmond will take up the role of chief executive of Choose Chicago.
Osmond, the first woman to helm the tourism agency, was most recently the chief executive at the Chicago Architecture Center.
“Lynn Osmond’s thorough experience leading the Chicago Architecture Center will be a great asset to Choose Chicago – and we’re proud she is the first woman to take on the job,” said Lightfoot.
“As the city continues to see a rise in tourism, Osmond’s intimate knowledge of this city will ensure that we will continue to safely encourage and delight those who come to Chicago for work or play.”
Officials and colleagues were quick to point out the deep history Osmond has with Choose Chicago and the Chicago tourism and hospitality community. ADVERTISEMENTThey say this means Osmond will hit the ground running.
Osmond was appointed after a global search overseen by a 13-member committee of Choose Chicago board members representing a cross-section of the tourism hospitality community.
“I am excited to have been selected for this important position as chief executive of Choose Chicago.
“This is a logical next step for me in a career with key leadership positions in non-profits including theatre, symphony orchestras, and architecture.
“I love Chicago and believe we have a tremendous opportunity to build back meeting business and provide audiences with experiences that will have them returning many times over,” said Osmond.
Osmond will take up the role from May 9th.

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The latest data from ForwardKeys reveals that the Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted an instant spike in flight cancellations to and from Russia.
On February 25th, the day after the start of the invasion, every booking that was made for travel to Russia was outweighed by six cancellations of pre-existing bookings.
The source markets exhibiting the highest cancellation rates, in order of volume, were Germany 773 per cent, France 472 per cent, Italy 152 per cent, the UK 254 per cent, India 285 per cent and Turkey 116 per cent.
The invasion also triggered a collapse in the market for Russian outbound travel.
Destinations which suffered the highest immediate cancellation rates, in the period February 24-26, were Cyprus, Egypt, Turkey, the UK, Armenia and Maldives.
Prior to the outbreak of war, Russian outbound flight bookings for March, April and May, had recovered to 32 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, with some holiday hotspots doing exceptionally well. ADVERTISEMENTMexico had been leading the way with flight bookings 427 per cent ahead of 2019 levels.
It was followed by Seychelles, Egypt ahead and the Maldives.
For some of the countries mentioned above, such as the Seychelles, Maldives and Cyprus, Russian arrivals represent for a high percentage of all international arrivals; so, a collapse in Russian travel will have damaging consequences on their tourism-dependent economies.
Coinciding with the collapse in international air travel, a strong recovery in domestic air travel, immediately stalled.
Up to February 23rd, Russian domestic flight bookings for March, April and May were running 25 per cent ahead of pre-pandemic levels.
However, new bookings fell 77 per cent, analysed on a week-on-week basis.

Olivier Ponti, vice president, insights, ForwardKeys, said: “The outbreak of war always has a hugely damaging impact on the travel industry; and that is what we are seeing here, with mass cancellations in flight bookings to and from Russia.
“The Russian tourism economy was beginning to revive from the pandemic; and it will now experience another substantial blow.
“There will also be serious impacts on destinations that depend heavily on Russian visitors.
“The current data does not yet contain the impact of sanctions, which is bound to make the picture worse.
“Of course, should there be a cease fire and successful peace talks, the outlook for travel should improve.
“However, while the economic damage already looks set to be dreadful; it is nothing compared to the human suffering experienced by the people in the field.”

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New data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) shows the tourism sector in the UK is recovering.
The industry is expected to make a £192 billion contribution to the economy this year, though this is still down by a fifth on pre-pandemic levels.
The global tourism body forecasts a healthy recovery for the UK tourism sector if travel restrictions and “unnecessary” testing protocols remain off limits for the rest of the year.
According to the latest research, it could also mean a net gain in jobs for the sector, with a rise of 1.7 per cent on pre-pandemic levels, resulting in some 4.3 million people being employed within tourism by the end of the year, 70,000 more than in 2019.
This latest WTTC data will come as welcome news to the country’s battle-scarred tourism sector as it looks forward to travel returning.ADVERTISEMENTJulia Simpson, WTTC chief executive, said: “Travel to and from the UK is poised for a full recovery.
“By the end of this year, we estimate its contribution to national economy could reach £192 billion.
“While the UK was one of the worst hit in terms of the sector’s contribution to GDP, the future is looking positive.
“But this will depend on the government keeping to its pledge to re-open UK Plc and not reintroducing the chaotic travel restrictions that actually had zero impact on the spread of the virus.”
Last week, research from WTTC revealed that as the world began its recovery from pandemic, the sector’s contribution to both the global economy and employment could reach almost pre-pandemic levels this year.
It forecasts that the global tourism’s contribution to the global economy could reach $8.6 trillion this year, just 6.4 per cent behind pre-pandemic levels.

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