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As the new year begins, it promises to be an important one for the aviation industry as it looks to continue on its path to recovering capacity levels. Cirium have examined ten important capacity trends to watch in 2023 which are evident from published flight schedules for this year’s first quarter.
United States – a drop in regional flying
For the opening quarter of 2023, US airlines are scheduled to fly 3% more domestic seats than they did in Q1, 2019. They will do so, however, while operating 10% fewer flights. This largely reflects a steep cut in regional flying, highlighted by a 17% drop for flights on routes of less than 600 miles. You can also see this shift to more reliance on mainline flying by looking at the average number of seats per departure. In Q1, 2019, this was 167. This quarter it’s 177.
East Asia – recovery still needed but things may change
East Asia has seen a significant loss of long-haul flying. By looking at routes longer than 3,000 miles, the number of flights from East Asian airports this quarter is down 41% when compared to Q1, 2019. This figure is partly influenced by China, which is suddenly reopening and likely to see significant schedule changes. Indeed Q1, 2023, schedules for China show that outbound and inbound capacity both more than doubled when compared to Q1, 2022, albeit both are still roughly 82% below pre-pandemic levels. Long-haul flights from Japan, too, are still down sharply when compared to pre-pandemic levels as well (down 29%). The decline for South Korea is 14% and Singapore 9%.ADVERTISEMENT
United Kingdom – Heathrow closer to full recovery
London Heathrow, Europe’s busiest airport before the pandemic, is getting closer to full recovery in terms of flight activity. Q1 seat counts currently show a decline of around 5% from Q1, 2019. That’s roughly in line with the shortfall at London’s Stansted and Luton airports. Gatwick’s Q1 seat capacity, on the other hand, is down 17% when compared to Q1, 2019.

Europe – airports are still less busy compared to 2019
All of western Europe’s major hub airports are still less busy now than they were four years ago. Paris De Gaulle’s seats are down 13%. Amsterdam’s decline is 17%. Frankfurt’s decline is 23%. The largest western European airport market that’s busier now than in 2019 is Lisbon. Its Q1 scheduled seats are up 12%. Other notable airports with an increase include Dublin, Paris Orly, Athens, and Malaga. However these are exceptions and the majority of Europe’s top airports have yet to recover their pre-Covid capacity levels.

Frankfurt, Germany – factors behind the travel decline
Why has Frankfurt seen a steep 23% decline in capacity? One reason is that several leading low-cost carriers, including Ryanair, easyJet, and Wizz Air, have left the city’s main airport. Air China and Aeroflot have also dropped scheduled service to Frankfurt. Bankrupt SAS sharply downsized its Frankfurt operations. But most importantly, the Lufthansa Group will be 27% smaller this quarter, in terms of scheduled seats, than it was pre-pandemic. Germany also happens to be a heavy business market, at a time when leisure markets are doing best. Lufthansa and its subsidiaries also have substantial exposure to Asian markets that have been slow to revive. There was considerable Russia exposure as well prior to the Ukraine conflict.

Turkey – a growth and capacity success story
Let us compare the situation in western Europe to what is happening in Istanbul. Turkey’s largest airline market is enjoying an airline boom, with the city’s main airport up 11% in seat capacity this quarter vs. Q1, 2019. Seats at Istanbul’s secondary airport are up 2%. More impressive is the growth measured by seat kilometres, which also takes a flight’s distance into account. Both of Istanbul’s airports show ASK growth exceeding 20%, reflecting an increase in long haul flights since 2019. The market is benefitting from the growth of Turkish Airlines and Pegasus Airlines, as well as Turkey’s large tourist sector and advantages linked to increased economic ties with Russia.

India – nearly back to 2019 capacity levels
India’s airline market is roughly back to where it was four years ago. Q1 seats are up 1%, while the number of flights is down 1%. The domestic market alone is a bit better, with seat counts up 5%. IndiGo Airways, which dominates India’s domestic market (it accounts for more than half of all seats) will grow capacity 31% above its 2019 levels this quarter. Rivals like Air India and SpiceJet, by contrast, are significantly down in capacity. Also influencing the data is the disappearance of Jet Airways, a major player in 2019.

Southern Hemisphere – mixed fortunes for now
Across the southern hemisphere, Latin America is showing strong recovery with Q1 seats up 7% from 2019, though that’s on 4% fewer flights. Seats to and from Africa are up 2%, on 3% more flights. The situation is less upbeat in Australia and New Zealand, which are together down 16% in seats and 8% in flights. Those markets had high service levels to Asian markets which are slower to recover, like Hong Kong.

Middle East – seats are down but low-cost carriers are growing
The dynamic Middle Eastern airline market has not quite recovered from the Covid crisis. Seats in the region are still down by about 4%. That is in large part because of double-digit contraction at leading Gulf carriers led by Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad. All are impacted by exposure to Asian hubs like Hong Kong and Shanghai. On the other hand, local and foreign low-cost carriers are growing aggressively throughout the Middle East, led by FlyDubai, Saudia’s subsidiary Flyadeal, Europe’s Wizz Air, and India’s IndiGo.

Varying success for world’s busiest airports
Of the world’s 100 busiest airports by seats this quarter, Austin is the growth leader relative to Q1, 2019; its seat counts are up a stunning 49%. Next on the leaders list are Cancun, Cairo, Bogota, Denver, and Las Vegas. On the other end of the scale, Hong Kong remains at the bottom, with scheduled seats still down 63% from the pre-Covid era. Outside of Asia, Munich has the steepest decline (down 30%) among the world’s top 100 airports.

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AirAsia X returned to Osaka, Japan earlier this week further expanding its network to/from the land of the rising sun.In celebration of the service resumption to Japan’s gourmet capital, all guests on the inaugural flight received gift bags and were treated to special performances before boarding.
The three weekly flights to Osaka are set to bring more than 116,000 travellers between Malaysia and Japan monthly and deliver a welcome boost to both countries’ tourism sectors.
AirAsia X Malaysia CEO Benyamin Ismail said, “We are pleased to start the new year with the announcement of our 13th route from Kuala Lumpur to Osaka. Following the resumption of services from Kuala Lumpur to Tokyo (Haneda) and Sapporo late last year, we have carried close to 30,000 guests between Malaysia and Japan post pandemic.
“Today, we have seen a strong passenger load factor for our inaugural flight of more than 95% and we are confident that this route will be very well received despite the competitive landscape. As travel demand rebounds, we will continue to expand our services to exciting destinations in Asia from our regional hubs in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok.”
To celebrate the return to one of its most popular destinations AAX is offering great value all-in* fares between Kuala Lumpur and Osaka from RM699/JPY29,990 all-in one-way for economy or RM2,999/JPY106,640 one way for a Premium Flatbed.ADVERTISEMENTAs a Group, AAX flies to three destinations in Japan namely Tokyo, Osaka and Sapporo from Kuala Lumpur operated by AirAsia X Malaysia (D7) and from Bangkok (Suvarnabhumi) operated by AirAsia X Thailand (XJ).
*All-in fares inclusive of airport taxes, fuel surcharges and any other applicable charges. Terms and conditions apply. Booking period from now until 29 January 2023 for travel period between 1 March 2023 and 30 September 2023.

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Delta Air Lines has firmed up an order for a dozen more A220-300 aircraft, bringing the airline’s total firm order for A220s to 119 aircraft – 45 A220-100s and 74 A220-300s. Throughout the years, Delta has reordered the A220 four times and is today the largest A220 customer and operator.
“These 12 additional A220 aircraft will help power our increasingly streamlined fleet while also providing our customers with the elevated in-flight experience they’ve come to expect from Delta,” said Kristen Bojko, Vice President of Fleet, Delta Air Lines.
“Delta Air Lines was the U.S. launch customer for the A220 and this fourth reorder in just four years by a leading carrier as Delta is a most gratifying endorsement,” said Christian Scherer, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer and Head of International. “The aircraft is currently connecting Delta passengers on more than 100 routes at 25 percent* less fuel and CO2 emissions. If you want to connect today and tomorrow, you can’t do any better!”
Delta took delivery of its first Airbus A220 in October 2018, and was the first U.S. carrier to operate the aircraft type. Delta currently owns a fleet of 415 Airbus aircraft, including 59 A220 aircraft, 266 A320 Family aircraft, 62 A330s and 28 A350-900 aircraft.
The A220 is the only aircraft purpose-built for the 100-150 seat market, bringing together state-of-the-art aerodynamics, advanced materials and Pratt & Whitney’s latest-generation GTF™ engines. The A220 brings customers a 50 percent reduced noise footprint as well as around 50 percent lower NOx emissions than industry standards.ADVERTISEMENTWith 246 A220s delivered to 16 airlines operating on four continents, the A220 is the optimal aircraft to offer operational flexibility for both regional as well as long-distance routes. To date, more than 70 million passengers have enjoyed the A220. The fleet is currently flying on over 825 routes and 325 destinations worldwide. As of the end of December 2022, nearly 30 customers have ordered close to 800 A220 aircraft – confirming its leading position in the small single-aisle market.@Airbus @Delta #A220

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Finavia has built an underground wetland at Helsinki Airport to improve water management. The project is the first of its kind in the Nordic countries.“Water management is an important part of our environmental work, and we do our best to ensure good conditions for flora and fauna alike in nearby streams. The new underground wetland will improve the condition of the streams by improving the quality and oxygen balance of the water flowing to them,” says Mikko Viinikainen, Vice President, Sustainability & Environment at Finavia.
The underground wetland is a basin filled with gravel and sealed at the bottom, where the storm water that drains onto its surface is cleaned when it passes through the gravel layer. The cleaning is enhanced by the compressed air supplied from the bottom of the basin through the aeration system.
This is an exceptional structure and first of its kind at a Nordic airport.
“Quantitative and qualitative water management reduces the load on bodies of water and the erosion of streams caused by aircraft deicing and runway anti-skid agents,” says Finavia’s Environmental Expert Tuija Hänninen.
“Storm water passes through the gravel into underdrains, and air bubbles from the aeration pipes below the underdrains oxidise the water. Aeration also prevents the wetland from freezing in winter. The layer growing on the treatment layer, in turn, acts as insulation in cold weather.ADVERTISEMENTThe surface area of the wetland is 3,200 square metres. The basin is built from 7,000 cubic metres of gravel. The aeration system of the wetland has a total of 150 metres of steel pipes, through which a fan feeds compressed air into the area at a rate of thousands of cubic metres per hour. In addition, there are hundreds of metres of sewer pipes and cables.Similar wetlands have been tested at other airports around the world, such as Buffalo Niagara Airport and London Heathrow Airport.
“The activity of the wetland is monitored both continuously and with water samples analysed in a laboratory. Sensors continuously provide information on the wetland’s flow and oxygen concentrations, and this information is used to control the aeration of the wetland and water circulation speed,” Hänninen says.
The completion of the underground wetland at Helsinki Airport is a significant investment in improving the quality of bodies of water in the surrounding areas and in managing the quality of stormwater.

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Following two years impacted by the COVID pandemic, 2022 heralded a return to growth with 3 million passengers choosing to fly to and from the central London hub.Amsterdam, with up to 13 daily rotations per day with KLM and British Airways, was the busiest route, with 392,000 passengers flying between the two European capitals.
Domestically, Edinburgh remained the busiest LCY route, reaching over 302,000 passengers for the year.
2022 also saw new summer sun routes like San Sebastian, Barcelona and Thessaloniki added to the departure board as well as increased summer rotations to the Balearics and Greek Islands.
The airport, which avoided the queues and disruption seen at many other airports over the summer, saw its growth in leisure travel reflected in the top 5 busiest days being split across June and July, peaking on June 6th with 14,418 passengers.
LCY also continued to be the airport of choice for corporate travellers, with the latest CAA passenger statistics showing that the majority of passengers in September, October and November were flying on business.ADVERTISEMENTThe airport also scooped two Best UK airport honours last year, as well as being recognised by Which? as providing the quickest airport security experience.And in 2023, LCY will look to further improve its market leading passenger proposition with every security lane being upgraded with the latest, state of the art, CT scanners by April. This will mean passengers no longer need to take their laptops or liquids out of their hand luggage.
In addition, ahead of what promises to be a busy summer, reaching close to 2019 levels, the airport will look to complete a £12 million transformation of its departure area, bringing new restaurants, an expanded Duty Free, more seats and new toilets, for passengers.
Looking ahead, the airport’s CEO, Robert Sinclair said:
“2022 proved how resilient we are as a business and just how much our passengers value the speed, convenience and consistently high levels of customer service which we offer at London City.
“In 2023, as people plan holidays or business trips, I believe the airport experience will be play an even bigger factor, and the good news for returning and first-time passengers is that we will be making flying through LCY even easier in the year ahead, with significant investments in security and in our departures area underway.
“LCY is an incredibly important strategic asset for London and in the year ahead we will be working closely with airlines to increase volumes, develop new, exciting routes and welcome more of the latest new generation aircraft, which operate to the highest of environmental standards.”
LCY’s first new route of 2023 will be Antwerp with Luxair which will commence from Monday, operating three times a week, upping to four from April.

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Abu Dhabi Airports announced the appointment of Maureen Bannerman as the company’s new Chief Commercial Officer (CCO) effective from January 2, 2023.A highly accomplished leader and seasoned professional with over 20 years’ experience primarily within the aviation industry, Bannerman has joined Abu Dhabi Airports following a successful tenure as Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of APM Terminal at the Khalifa Bin Salman Port in Bahrain. In addition to her invaluable aviation experience, she also brings extensive expertise in the logistics and transport fields, having held positions at renowned organisations such as Serco and Network Rail in the UK.
H.E. Eng. Jamal Salem Al Dhaheri, Managing Director & CEO of Abu Dhabi Airports, said: “We are delighted to welcome Maureen to Abu Dhabi Airports as part of our Executive Team. We are confident her exemplary track record will help realise our growth strategies and commercial plans as an enabler and a catalyst for tourism, trade, logistics and business in the emirate and the UAE.”
In her new position, Maureen has assumed roles and responsibilities including developing and implementing commercial plans that align with Abu Dhabi Airports’ business strategy and financial objectives, as well as identifying and pursuing viable new commercial opportunities.As CCO, she will also play a pivotal role in the company’s long-term strategic growth plans in line with Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030. Her efforts here will be centered around innovating to deliver product and service excellence, within safe, secure and sustainable airport operations as per industry best practices and promoting tourism and trade via world-class connectivity.
Bannerman holds a Master’s Degree in Business Administration and Higher National Diploma in Business and Finance.

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Heathrow Airport Sees 90% Passenger Growth in December as Transatlantic Travel Fueled Reunions Over the Holidays
Christmas and New Year reunions fuelled passenger growth during December, with more than 5.9 million passengers travelling in the month – up 90% compared with the same time last yearTransatlantic travel was a key driver behind last month’s high passenger volumes, with JFK clinching the top spot as the airport’s busiest routeForward planning and close collaboration with airport partners ensured we provided a smooth and efficient service to travellers throughout the festive period.  92% of passengers passed through security in under 10 minutes during the Christmas peak, service for passengers with reduced mobility improved, and arriving travellers reported a friendly and efficient journey through immigration in spite of industrial actionIn total, Heathrow welcomed 61.6 million passengers (76% of 2019 levels) during 2022 – 42.2 million higher than in 2021. This is the highest passenger increase of any airport in EuropeProviding excellent service remains our key priority for 2023, as the aviation industry rebuilds capacity and resilience. We are concerned that the recovery of the aviation sector, which is critical to the economy, could be set back by the reintroduction of testing for travellers in the UK and elsewhere in response to increasing COVID levels in China, even though governments acknowledge there is no scientific basis for doing so
Heathrow CEO John Holland-Kaye said:
“2022 ended on a high with our busiest Christmas in three years and a smooth and efficient service for passengers, thanks to the hard work of our colleagues and close planning with airlines, their ground handlers and Border Force.”

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Southern California’s Ontario International Airport finished 2022 with its highest annual passenger volume since 2008.
Ontario International Airport (ONT) welcomed more than 5.7 million airline travelers in 2022, outpacing pre-pandemic 2019 by 2.8% as the popular Southern California gateway recorded its highest passenger volume since 2008.At the same time, shipments of air cargo outpaced 2019 volume by nearly 9%, maintaining ONT’s position as a major commerce and logistics hub.
We experienced great demand for air travel through Ontario International in 2022 with passenger levels exceeding pre-pandemic levels for the entire calendar year,” said Atif Elkadi, chief executive officer, Ontario International Airport Authority (OIAA). “Our airline partners restored air services suspended because of the pandemic while adding new routes and increased flight frequencies to popular destinations, and passengers showed their preference for our hallmark customer-friendly experience.”
Ontario’s 2022 passenger volume was 27.6% greater than the 2021 total of 4.5 million and was the highest since 2008, when 6.2 million passenger flew into or out of the airport. Since ONT’s return to local control in 2016, passenger volumes are up nearly 36%.
Ontario also ranks among the fastest recovering airports in the U.S. after the severe disruption in global air travel during the early months of the pandemic.
That growth is expected to continue into the new year. Based on current airline schedules, ONT will have 6.7% more flights and 12.3% more available seats in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.ADVERTISEMENTMeanwhile, Ontario International has fortified its role as a global air cargo center. For the year, freight and mail that moved through ONT totaled more than 850,000 tons, 8.9% higher than 2019 when the airport handled almost 782,000 tons of cargo.
Ontario ranks among the 10 largest cargo airports in North America, and according to a recent analysis by Oxford Economics, serves as the hub of a global supply chain network that generates $17.8 billion in economic activity.

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