Eliana Willis

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced an expected strengthening of airline industry profitability in an upgrade of its outlook for 2023. Highlights include:Airline industry net profits are expected to reach $9.8 billion in 2023 (1.2% net profit margin) which is more than double the previous forecast of $4.7 billion (December 2022).Airline industry operating profits are expected to reach $22.4 billion in 2023, much improved over the December forecast of a $3.2 billion operating profit. It is also more than double the $10.1 billion operating profit estimated for 2022.Some 4.35 billion people are expected to travel in 2023, which is closing in on the 4.54 billion who flew in 2019.Cargo volumes are expected to be 57.8 million tonnes, which has slipped below the 61.5 million tonnes carried in 2019 with a sharp slowing of international trade volumes.Total revenues are expected to grow 9.7% year over year to $803 billion. This is the first time that industry revenues will top the $800 billion mark since 2019 ($838 billion). Expense growth is expected to be contained to an 8.1% annual increase.“Airline financial performance in 2023 is beating expectations. Stronger profitability is supported by several positive developments. China lifted COVID-19 restrictions earlier in the year than anticipated. Cargo revenues remain above pre-pandemic levels even though volumes have not. And, on the cost side, there is some relief. Jet fuel prices, although still high, have moderated over the first half of the year,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
The return to net profitability, even with a 1.2% net profit margin, is a major achievement. First, it was achieved at a time of significant economic uncertainties. And second, it follows the deepest losses in aviation’s history ($183.3 billion of net losses for 2020-2022 (inclusive) for an average net profit margin of -11.3% over that period). It should be noted that the airline industry entered the COVID-19 crisis at the end of a historic profit streak that saw an average net profit margin of 4.2% for the 2015-2019 period.
“Economic uncertainties have not dampened the desire to travel, even as ticket prices absorbed elevated fuel costs. After deep COVID-19 losses, even a net profit margin of 1.2% is something to celebrate! But with airlines just making $2.25 per passenger on average, repairing damaged balance sheets and providing investors with sustainable returns on their capital will continue to be a challenge for many airlines,” said Walsh. 
Outlook DriversRevenues are rising (9.7%) faster than expenses (8.1%), strengthening profitability.
Revenue: Industry revenues are expected to reach $803 billion in 2023 (+9.7% on 2022 and -4.1% on 2019). An inventory of 34.4 million flights is expected to be available in 2023 (+24.4% on 2022, -11.5% on 2019).ADVERTISEMENTPassenger revenues are expected to reach $546 billion (+27% on 2022, -10% on 2019). With COVID-19 restrictions now removed in all major markets, the industry is expected to reach 87.8% of 2019 levels of revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) for the year with strengthening passenger traffic as the year progresses. The high demand for travel in many markets is keeping yields strong with a modest 1.1% decline expected in 2023 compared to 2022 levels (following increases of 9.8% in 2022 and 3.7% in 2021).Efficiency levels are high with an expected average passenger load factor of 80.9% for 2023. That is very near the 2019 record performance of 82.6%.
IATA’s May 2023 passenger polling data supports the optimistic outlook, with 41% of travelers indicating they expect to travel more in the next 12 months than in the previous year and 49% expect to undertake the same level of travel. Moreover, 77% of respondents indicated that they were already traveling as much or more than they did pre-pandemic.
Cargo revenues are expected to be $142.3 billion. While that is down sharply from $210 billion in 2021 and $207 billion in 2022, it is well above the $100 billion earned in 2019. Yields will be negatively impacted by two factors: (1) the ramping-up of passenger capacity which automatically increases available belly capacity for cargo and (2) the potential negative effects on international trade of economic cooling measures introduced to fight inflation. Yields are expected to correct with a 28.6% decline this year, but still remain high by all historical comparisons. Note that yield increases of 54.7% were recorded in 2020, 25.9% in 2021 and 7.4% in 2022.Expenses are expected to grow to $781 billion (+8.1% on 2022 and -1.8% on 2019).
Jet fuel costs are expected to average $98.5/barrel in 2023 for a total fuel bill of $215 billion. That is cheaper than the $111.9 / barrel previously expected (December 2022) and the average cost of $135.6 experienced in 2022.High crude oil prices were exaggerated for airlines as the crack spread (premium paid to refine crude oil into jet fuel) averaged more than 34% for 2022—significantly above the long-run average. As a result, fuel was responsible for almost 30% of total expenses. In recent months, the crack spread has narrowed, and the full year average crack spread is expected to fall to around 23%, which is more closely aligned with the historical average rate.  Fuel costs will account for 28% of the average cost structure, which is still above the 24% of 2019.
Non-Fuel expenses have been controlled well by airlines despite inflationary pressures. With fixed costs being distributed over a larger scale of activity, non-fuel unit costs per available tonne kilometre (ATK) are expected to fall to 39 cents per ATK. That is -6.4% compared to 2022 (41.7 cents /ATK) and marks a return to about pre-COVID levels. Total non-fuel costs are expected to reach $565 billion in 2023.RisksThe economic and geopolitical environment presents several risks to the outlook. With just $22.4 billion of operating profit (2.8%) standing between $803 billion of revenues and $781 billion in expenses, industry profitability is fragile and could be affected (positively or negatively) by a number of factors. In particular, consideration should be given to:
Inflation fighting measures are maturing at different rates in different markets. Central banks are calibrating the best levels for interest rates to have a maximum cooling effect on inflation while avoiding tipping economies into recession. An early or lower end to rate rises could stimulate markets for a stronger year-end outlook. Equally, the risk of recession remains. Should recession lead to job losses, the industry’s outlook could shift negatively.War in Ukraine is not having a major impact on profitability for most airlines. A currently unanticipated peace could carry the potential for cost improvements with lower oil prices and efficiencies from the removal or easing of airspace restrictions. An escalation, however, would likely have negative prospects for global aviation. Already broader geopolitical tensions are weighing upon international trade and any escalation of such tensions represents a downside risk to the industry outlook.Supply chain issues continue to impact global trade and business. Supply chains are shifting to fill gaps in resilience caused by current geopolitical tensions and the challenges experienced during COVID-19. Airlines have been directly impacted by aircraft parts supply chain ruptures which aircraft and engine manufacturers have failed to sort out. This is negatively impacting the delivery of new aircraft and the ability of airlines to maintain and deploy existing fleets.Regulatory cost burdens are at risk of increase from increasingly interventionist regulators. In particular, the industry could face rising costs of compliance for increasingly punitive passenger rights regimes and regional environment initiatives.Regional Round UpWhile the global airline industry is expected to return to profitability in 2023, financial performance across regions remains diverse. The positive news is that industry financials are improving in all regions from the COVID-related depths of 2020, although not all regions are expected to deliver a profit this year.

2022The improvement in industry financial performance in 2022 outpaced previous expectations. Net industry losses for 2022 are now estimated to be -$3.6 billion, a strengthening from the previously estimated -$6.9 billion loss (December 2022). At the operating level, and notwithstanding the wide variation in performance, the latest data point to the industry having returned to profit in 2022 on a pre-tax basis.
Bottom Line“Resilience is the story of the day and there are many good reasons for optimism. Achieving profitability at an industry level after the depths of the COVID-19 crisis opens up much potential for airlines to reward investors, fund sustainability, and invest in efficiencies to connect the world even more effectively. That’s a big ‘to do’ list to achieve with just a 1.2% net profit margin. That’s why we call on governments to keep their focus on initiatives that will strengthen safe, sustainable, efficient, and profitable connectivity,” said Walsh.
“Priorities for 2023 include SAF production incentives to accelerate progress toward net zero carbon emissions, ensuring the integrity of CORSIA as the economic measure applied to international aviation, eliminating inefficiencies in air traffic management and applying global standards consistently,” said Walsh.
Passengers are counting on a safe, sustainable, efficient and profitable airline industry. A recent IATA poll of travelers in 11 global markets revealed that 81% of those surveyed emerged from the pandemic with a greater appreciation of the freedom that flying makes possible. The same study also demonstrated the important role that travelers see the airline industry playing:
90% said that connectivity by air is critical to the economy91% said that air travel is a necessity for modern life88% said that air travel has a positive impact on societies82% said that the global air transport network is a key contributor to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)96% expressed satisfaction with their last flight, and77% said that flying was good value for money.

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Airlines are en route to a profitable, safe, efficient, and sustainable future.The pandemic years are behind us, and borders are open as normal. Despite economic uncertainties, people are flying to reconnect, explore, and do business.Latest data show passenger traffic at over 90% of 2019 levels. Airports are busier, hotel occupancy is rising, local economies are reviving, and the airline industry has moved into profitability. 
Financial PerformanceMargins are, however, wafer thin. With $803 billion of revenues, airlines will share $9.8 billion in net profit this year. Put another way, airlines will make, on average, $2.25 per passenger. So, the value retained by airlines for the average plane trip won’t even buy a subway ticket in NYC. Clearly that level of profitability is not sustainable. But considering we lost $76 per passenger in 2020, the velocity of the recovery is strong.
Challenges remain. Inflation continues, cost pressure is acute, and in some areas, labor is in short supply. Unfortunately, many of those we do business with are adding to these pressures.
OEM suppliers have been far too slow in dealing with supply chain blockages that are both raising costs and limiting our ability to deploy aircraft. Airlines are beyond frustrated. A solution must be found.Oil companies did very well on our tab while the crack spread for jet fuel was at historic highs for most of 2022 until April this year.And there are grievous examples of some airports and ANSPs shifting the costs of their inefficiency to airlines.On this point, I can now confirm that Schiphol Airport has no shame. After a self-made operational disaster in 2022 the airport continues its three-year 37% charges hike—with 12% this year.In South Africa, airports want a 38% charges increase, only to be outdone by ATC demands for a 63% hike.And, back to Europe, airlines are paying for a EUR1.9 billion addition to the air traffic management cost base in 2022. You’d expect good performance. But delays were triple what was anticipated. And capacity and environment targets were missed.With such bad behavior on open display, calls for lighter touch economic regulation of our monopoly suppliers must not be taken seriously by any government.
Considering these many challenges, that airlines are turning a profit at the industry level is truly impressive.ADVERTISEMENTAGM OPENING SESSION
SafetyWe can also be impressed by the industry’s safety record. This year marks 20 years of the IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA). In September 2003, Qatar Airways was the first to join the IOSA registry. Today, over 400 airlines are on the registry. It is the global standard for managing operational safety.
More importantly, it is clear that IOSA helps to improve safety. In 2022, IOSA registered carriers outperformed those not on the registry by a factor of four. It is never “job done” on safety. So, we are marking two decades of success by making IOSA even more effective with a transition to a risk-based approach.
Of course, IOSA is not the only global standard improving safety. We prevent future accidents by learning from accident reports. But, of the 214 accidents in the last 5 years, only 96 final accident reports are available. This is an inexcusable violation of the Chicago Convention and a disservice to the safety of our passengers and crew. Governments and their agencies must improve.
Efficiency and Implementation of Global StandardsAs an industry connecting people and goods across jurisdictions, global standards are at the core of our success—starting with safety and permeating everything we do.
For example, consumers the world over appreciate the ability to purchase air travel in a single currency for any destination in absolute confidence. That’s achieved with the global standard processes of the IATA Financial Settlement Systems. With half a century of experience and global scale, they are cost effective, safe and reliable. And we are constantly evolving them to deliver the value you expect
This experience also helps IATA to set global standards that make travel ever more efficient….
The transformation to modern airline retailing is taking shape. The aim is to make buying air travel as easy as ordering from any online retailer.Verifiable digital identity standards enabling all players in the supply chain to interact more efficiently and securely are being developed.And, with biometric identification, standards for contactless processes are improving the security and efficiency of the airport experience.Even if not always top of mind, global standards underpin our ability to connect the world. Unfortunately, that appreciation is not universal among our stakeholders, including governments. Fragmentation is growing because governments are either.
Not acting globallyNot implementing completely, orSimply inventing local solutions.Local Solutions: Passenger Rights
Passenger rights is an example of the latter. Over a hundred jurisdictions have developed unique regulations intended to protect air travelers. And at least a dozen governments are looking to join the group or toughen what they already have. 
The question I ask myself is what is the basis for all this? We recently surveyed 4,700 travelers across 11 markets to understand their experiences.
96% were satisfied with their last trip77% said air travel was good value for money, and73% were confident they would be treated fairly by their airline in the event of operational disruptionsEvery journey is not perfect. There are lessons to learn from rare but widely reported incidents where customers were not treated as they should. But governments are going beyond the reasonable.
Europe’s infamous EU 261 passenger rights regulation is a contorting contagion.  It penalizes airlines for disruptions—misunderstanding that the huge costs of not operating to schedule are already a major incentive.
Meanwhile, the European Court of Justice continues to transform EU 261 from bad to absurd. Its latest judgement found that the death of a pilot, at an outstation, is not an extraordinary circumstance. Anyone with common sense would certainly wonder who the judges expect to fly the plane!
It should come as no surprise that, nearly two decades after the regulation came to be, consumers are paying more to cover the cost of compensation, and EU studies show no improvement in delays or cancellations.  At the same time, Europe conveniently excuses itself from modernizing air traffic management. The Single European Sky contains the tools to reduce most delays at their source and improve environmental performance.
So we were amazed when the US announced that EU 261 will be the model for its punitive passenger rights regime. That closely followed Canada’s latest innovation on its 261-style regime where the airline is now guilty until proven innocent. Considering that 93% of Canadian travelers polled told us that they were satisfied with their last flight, this is a regulatory sledgehammer to crack a nut, and the results will be messy. We must keep careful watch because governments from Australia to Latin America and the Middle East are all thinking about their own innovations in this area, which could be a nightmare for airlines and their passengers.
The rotten tomato prize, however, goes to the “pay as you fly” initiative by the EU’s DG Justice. In a misguided initiative to protect travelers, airlines would only receive full payment when the journey is complete. The cashflow impact would be horrendous. And who’s interest will be served by the higher costs and higher fares that will result?
It is a sad reality that we must remind governments that:
They should follow the passenger rights principles that they agreed through ICAO, especially on proportionality, andThat airlines serve passengers who are firmly in control of the ultimate passenger right—to choose the airline they spend their money with.The Importance of Fully Implementing Global Standards: Slots and Schiphol
Problems also arise when global standards are not implemented as intended. There are two examples:
The first is slots. The Worldwide Airport Slot Guidelines (WASG) underpin 43% of all journeys. And European data show they are effective with a 95% utilization rate and plenty of choice for consumers. Still, some regulators succumb to temptations to “toughen” the rules to be seen to be doing something.Truth be told, the best way to improve performance is fully utilizing the existing slot guidance provisions. For example, when there are extraordinary situations like COVID-19, the flexibility provided to regulators is the quality that keeps them relevant. Flexibility helps airlines meet consumer demand without perverse requirements to fly near empty planes.
Regulators should also insist on honest capacity declarations by all players—including airports, ANSPs, and border control. Inaccurate capacity declarations resulted in chaos at some hubs last year. A repeat performance cannot be permitted. We need rigorous attention on meaningful capacity declarations. Where known staff shortages and airspace restrictions exist, they must be planned into the capacities that airlines are scheduling against, not absorbed by delays or cancellations on the day.
The second example is Schiphol. The Dutch government imposed a 12% capacity cut in a crude effort to manage noise. We won a court challenge because the government didn’t honor its decades-long commitments under the ICAO Balanced Approach on noise management. Consultation was a charade and operational restrictions were the first choice—not the last resort as the Balanced Approach calls for.The Dutch government is appealing, and we continue to challenge for two reasons. An industry focused on safety cannot accept the politicization of technical discussions. And ignoring the rules-based order established by global standards is a slippery slope to confusion that we airlines can ill-afford and our customers will not tolerate.
The message is simple. Global standards are key. When fully applied, they improve safety and drive consumer benefits, operational efficiencies and sustainably efforts.
The Importance of Acting Globally: Sustainability
And on sustainability, we have said from the beginning that it is a global challenge that needs a global solution. 
At the 41st ICAO Assembly in October 2022 governments agreed a long-term aspirational goal for aviation to achieve net zero emissions by 2050—aligning governments with our net zero by 2050 resolution at the 77th IATA AGM a year earlier.
That’s important because governments are now accountable to deliver a global policy framework to achieve net zero by 2050. And even though “aspirational” is a qualifier in LTAG, failure is not an option.
What has happened since LTAG was agreed?
Let me just highlight two significant steps.
First, IATA has published a series of roadmaps to net zero by 2050. These roadmaps are the first detailed assessment of the key steps necessary to make net zero by 2050 an aviation success—covering technology, infrastructure, operations, finance and policy. They will, of course, evolve as we dig deeper to set interim milestones on the way to net zero.
I must emphasize that the roadmaps are not just for airlines. Governments, suppliers, and financiers cannot be spectators to the challenge. We all have skin in the game. And each must deliver the products, policies or investments needed to decarbonize.
Expert evaluation is essential. But too often even professional organizations contribute amateur assessments to this important debate. And that helps nobody. The latest that caught my eye, because it received widespread media coverage and is now often quoted, was a recent Royal Society report on resource requirements for net zero aviation fuels.
To underpin their research, they used fuel burn performance data for flights between London and New York for a Boeing 737-300. Yes, you heard me right, a 737-300, an aircraft that went out of production in 1999, flying between London and New York. Now, I’ve flown the 737-300 so I know a bit about it and what I know for certain is you cannot get the minimum of 21 tonnes of fuel that they estimated you would require into the fuel tanks that can only take a maximum of 16 tonnes. So, if we know that that section of the report is rubbish what confidence can we have in the rest of the document?
Decarbonizing aviation is a serious multi-trillion-dollar initiative. It must be informed by expert research that can stand up to scrutiny.
And that leads me to a second important development since LTAG. IATA published a global standard methodology to track progress toward net zero. The transparency that accurate tracking will enable is critical to holding ourselves and our stakeholders accountable—accountable for what is achieved and what is not in the quest for a truly credible net zero by 2050 target.
Temptations
I’ll say it again. Decarbonizing aviation is a serious issue and governments must not be allowed to use it to shore up exchequer finances.
CORSIA illustrates the risk. The ICAO Assembly increased CORSIA’s financial burden by adjusting the baseline to 85% of 2019 emissions. We accepted this as part of a political compromise to achieve LTAG and with the assurance that CORSIA would be the only economic measure applied to international aviation.
Almost immediately Europe developed amnesia. Not only is it threatening to make EU ETS extra-territorial, but several European states also want to tax jet fuel—in defiance of the Chicago Convention and almost every bilateral air service agreement and of course, undermining the CORSIA agreement that Europe promoted.
And the argument that international aviation is not taxed does not hold water. We analyzed data from almost 7 billion tickets for international flights going back to 2018 which showed that airlines have paid over $380 billion in taxes and charges which added over 33% to the price of a ticket. And if we include domestic flights, that figure of $380 billion rises to half a trillion US dollars. It’s important that policy makers are moved by facts not fictions and it’s heartening that 75% of travelers see green taxes for what they are—nothing more than government greenwashing!
SAF
Of course, our biggest focus is on SAF which will be the biggest contributor to net zero success.
Today’s SAF production is less than 0.1% of what we need for net zero. But the trend is positive. In 2022, SAF production tripled to 300 million liters. And while critics of our industry dismiss that figure as irrelevant, it’s important to remember that airlines used every single drop costing almost $350 million. With the right supportive policies, reaching 30 billion liters by 2030 is challenging but achievable. That would be about 6% of the 450 billion liters annual production capacity we need in 2050. We think it will be the tipping point because achieving it will establish the trajectory needed to scale up for 2050.
Why are we not moving faster? The willingness of airlines to use SAF is definitely not the issue. As I’ve said,  every drop of SAF ever produced has been purchased and used. The problem is insufficient production capacity to meet demand.
That’s why we must increase the number of pathways for SAF production and diversify feedstocks—of course while maintaining their sustainability credentials. Doing so will open production opportunities best suited to particular geographical locations. Governments should be jumping over themselves to be first in line for the job creation, local economic stimulus, and biodiversity protection that SAF production brings—significant benefits for both developed and developing economies alike.
Unfortunately, the politicians have not made good on their COP 26 promise to stop financing fossil fuels. We’ve not seen a major shift of fossil fuel subsidies to green energy—certainly not for SAF.
The US approach to SAF is the most advanced with a system of tax credits to drive up production levels. This will be more effective than purchase mandates being considered as far and wide as Singapore, India and Europe. When there is not enough supply, a purchase mandate will drive prices up, stall innovation and limit competition long before supply increases.
And if there is an early policy decision that is needed, it is to establish global standards for a SAF book and claim system that can fairly allocate SAF credits with no double counting.
Just as location makes no difference on the impact of CO2 emissions, it has no impact on where SAF is uplifted and used either. A global approach to book and claim for SAF credits will help facilitate economies of scale in SAF production. And it will avoid the long-distance shipping (or even importation) of SAF, which would only degrade its climate credentials.
It is important that we get these basics of energy transition done—production incentives, more diversified production pathways and a book and claim system. Our commitment to net zero by 2050 is fixed and firm. We have the roadmaps for an energy transition. Now we need these tools to get the job done!
Looking AheadThe sustainability challenge is, bar none, the biggest that we will face as leaders of the aviation industry. This will be difficult and take time. As pioneers building the net zero emissions age for aviation, scrutiny of our efforts will be extreme. We must welcome it as a means of telling the impressive story of aviation’s decarbonization and its contributions to society.
My friends, we have every reason to be proud of a profitable, safe, efficient and sustainable global air transport industry and our research tells us that people appreciate what we do:
87% believe that flying is critical, and we must find a way to fly sustainably without restricting travel88% feel that air travel has a positive impact on society82% recognize aviation as a key contributor to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, and91% see air connectivity as a modern necessity and81% of travelers appreciate the freedom to fly more today than they did pre-pandemicAnd we have lived up to the faith they place in us;
Last year airlines transported goods valued at $8.5 trillion, supporting enormous economic opportunitiesAnd this year we expect to safely enable 4.4 billion flyers to do business, reconnect with loved ones, explore our beautiful planet, fulfil something on their bucket list, or expand their horizons.In the two hours it takes for our AGM, there will be over a million people experiencing the wonders of air travel. We dedicate ourselves to being profitable, safe, efficient and sustainable because each of those arrivals has every potential to make good things happen in our world.
On behalf of everyone in IATA who is there to serve and represent you, I thank you for your commitment and support.

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The head of a group representing global airlines renewed pressure on planemakers to speed up plane and parts production on Sunday, warning the delays would curtail airline capacity as demand for air travel nears a full recovery from the pandemic.
Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, told Reuters the topic had been raised by “every single one” of the airline CEOs he had met as the industry gathers for a three-day annual meeting in Istanbul.
Airlines “are not concerned about the macroeconomic environment, they’re concerned about the access to spare parts for their existing aircraft and the delivery of new aircraft. So it’s definitely got to hold back capacity growth,” he said.
“It’s frustrating because airlines can see strong demand, but they’re not able to match supply with demand in many markets. And this is something we want to see resolved.”
Airbus and Boeing have blamed supply chains for delivery delays, while bottlenecks in a network of engine repair shops have also forced airlines to ground dozens of jets.ADVERTISEMENTThe gathering comes two weeks before the Paris Airshow, where supply pressures are likely to overshadow new orders.
Source: https://english.alarabiya.net/

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IATA Releases Strategic Roadmaps to Showcase Critical Steps to Reach Net Zero by 2050 More

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) unveiled a series of roadmaps aimed at providing step-by-step detailing of critical actions and dependencies for aviation to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. These roadmaps address aircraft technology, energy infrastructure, operations, finance, and policy considerations leading to net zero.
With the adoption of a Long Term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) at ICAO’s 41st Assembly, governments and industry are aligned to reach the same net zero CO2 emissions goal by 2050. As policy initiatives lay the foundation on which many of the needed innovations and actions will rest, these roadmaps will be a critical reference point for policy makers.
“The roadmaps are the first detailed assessment of the key steps necessary to accelerate the transition to net zero by 2050. Together, they show a clear direction and will evolve as we dig deeper to set interim milestones on the way to net zero. I must emphasize that the roadmaps are not just for airlines. Governments, suppliers, and financiers cannot be spectators in aviation’s decarbonization journey. They have skin in the game. The roadmaps are a call to action for all aviation’s stakeholders to deliver the tools needed to make this fundamental transformation of aviation a success with policies and products fit for a net-zero world,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
The roadmaps were not developed in isolation. A peer-to-peer review, complemented by a modeling tool provided by the Air Transportation Systems Laboratory at University College London (UCL), was conducted to calculate emission reductions for each technology.
Highlights of each roadmap include:ADVERTISEMENTAircraft Technology: the development of more efficient aircraft and engines. Particularly important are the steps needed to enable aircraft powered by 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), hydrogen or batteries. All development milestones are backed-up by announced investment and demonstrator programs. Also included are new engines, aerodynamics, aircraft structures, and flight systems.Energy and New Fuels Infrastructure: the focus is on the fuels and new energy carrier infrastructure upstream from airports needed to facilitate the use of aircraft powered by SAF or hydrogen. Renewable energy plays a vital role in meeting the aviation sector’s energy demand, and the roadmap outlines milestones to enable the necessary infrastructure developments.Operations: the opportunities for reducing emissions and improving energy efficiency by improving the way existing aircraft are operated. Automation, big data management, and the integration of new technologies are key enablers for optimizing air traffic management and enhancing the overall efficiency of the air transportation system.Policy: the need for globally aligned strategic policies to provide incentives and support for the aviation industry’s transition to a net-zero future. As with all other successful energy transitions, collaboration between governments and industry stakeholders is crucial in creating the necessary framework to achieve the decarbonization goals.Finance: how to finance the cumulative $5 trillion needed for aviation to achieve net zero by 2050. This includes technological advancements, infrastructure developments, and operational improvements.The challenges to ramp up SAF production are a good illustration of the importance of these roadmaps. As a drop-in solution, SAF is expected to deliver about 62% of carbon mitigation needed to achieve net zero by 2050. But even though SAF is expected to be fully implementable with future aircraft fleet, it still has major inter-dependencies on policy, aircraft technology, energy infrastructure, financing, and operations for which these roadmaps are critical.
“The roadmaps show where all stakeholders should focus their efforts. There are two certainties. By 2050 we need to be at net zero carbon emissions. And the steps to get there that are outlined in these roadmaps will evolve as the industry’s expertise grows. Policy is particularly important early on as it, to a large extent, sets the scene for private sector investors to move.  With that, the private sector can decarbonize at scale and with speed,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist at IATA.
“Without the right policy incentives and bold investments, many of the technologies and innovations simply won’t happen at scale. Everything is related, and that is why we have the five roadmaps to tie all the parallel elements together and give our stakeholders, including governments, a complete understanding of everything that needs to happen,” said Owens Thomsen.
“Time is of the essence, as highlighted by these roadmaps. Immediate action is required to commercialize scalable zero-carbon energy storage solutions along with the required infrastructure, and to build a business case for their rapid delivery at Gigawatt scale,” said Prof. Andreas Schafer, Director of UCL’s Air Transport Systems Laboratory.

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